After a decade of robust growth, world production of soybeans will grow at a much slower rate of 1.5 percent annually in the years ahead, says two UN agencies in their annual Agricultural Outlook. Brazil, the longtime No. 2 to the United States in soybeans, will reach parity with America, said the report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization.
“Brazil and the United States are expected to have similar levels of soybean production throughout the next decade, with production in both cases reaching around 130 million tonnes in 2027,” said a chapter on oilseeds. The report says Brazil averaged 110 million tonnes and the United States 114 million tonnes of sobyeans in 2015, 2016 and 2017.
China would remain the world’s largest soybean importer, with purchases rising a modest 1.5 percent a year, to reach 113 million tonnes in 2027, equal to two-thirds of world trade in soybeans. Brazil would continue as the largest exporter, holding 42 percent of the market at the end of the decade, a modest increase.
The OECD and FAO said commodity prices are expected to remain low worldwide due to ample stocks and a weakening demand for food and feed. “Much of the impetus to demand over the past decade came from rising per capita incomes in the People’s Republic of China … which stimulated the country’s demand for meat, fish and animal feed. This source of demand growth is decelerating yet new sources of global demand are not yet sufficient to maintain overall growth … Current high stocks also make a rebound unlikely within the next few years.”