A Brazilian analyst said the country will see record-setting soybean exports this year as the result of a drought-afflicted crop in Argentina and trade tensions between the United States and China, which buys two-thirds of the soybeans on the world market, reported Reuters. Andre Pessoa, a partner at Agroconsult, also forecast a record-large Brazilian soybean crop of 118.9 million tonnes.
Brazil, the United States, and Argentina are the three largest soybean growers and exporters in the world. If Agroconsult’s forecast for the Brazilian crop, which is now being harvested, is accurate, it would trail the 2017 U.S. crop by less than 1 million tonnes. Brazil has been the world’s largest soybean exporter for years. Pessoa forecast exports this year of 72 million tonnes, far above last year’s 63 million tonnes. By comparison, U.S. exports are forecast at 56 million tonnes by the USDA.
Brazilian soybeans are currently fetching higher prices than U.S. soybeans, in large part because of the possibility that China will respond to tariffs imposed by President Trump last week by retaliating against U.S. farm exports.
If the Agroconsult forecast turns out to be correct, this will be the second year in a row of record soybean production for Brazil. Last year’s crop of 114.1 million tonnes is the high mark now.