Brazil, the agricultural giant of South America, will supplant the United States as the world’s largest corn exporter before a decade passes, says a top Brazilian commodity consultant. The prediction underlines diminishing U.S. dominance of the world market. Brazil already is the largest soybean exporter and a close second to the U.S. as a soybean grower.
At present, Brazil is the No. 2 corn exporter in the world, with sales forecast at 35 million tonnes, compared to 52 million for the U.S. in the current marketing year. Andre Pessoa, president of Agroconsult, said during a panel discussion at the USDA Outlook Forum that Brazilian exports will boom with the expanding volume of production from so-called second-crop corn, planted immediately after soybeans are harvested. To make his point, he displayed a photo of a flying wedge of tractor-drawn corn planters following a chevron of self-propelled combines across a vast field of soybeans stretching to the horizon.
Pessoa reminded listeners of forecasts in the early 2000s that Brazil would take the lead in soybean exports. “We are going to do the same or much the same amount of corn in the future,” said Pessoa. “It means we are going to double our corn exports in 10 years.”
While USDA expects a sizable increase in corn exports by Brazil, it says the exports will total 44.8 million tonnes in 2027/28 when U.S. sales are projected at 55.9 million tonnes, so the U.S. would remain the largest exporter by a large margin and Brazil will remain No. 2.
Second-crop corn is planted mainly in Brazil’s Center West states, although the production area is moving northward. The Center West is closer to northern export terminals than to Brazil’s livestock sector, concentrated in the south, so it is readily available to overseas buyers at a time when ports are not clogged by the soybean harvest. Pessoa said yields are rising on second crop corn and production costs are falling, so Brazilian corn is becoming more cost-competitive with U.S. corn. Growers see second crop corn as a way to optimize equipment and labor costs and as a rotational crop that helps control pest and disease risks.
Brazilian corn exports tripled in the past decade, said USDA analysts in the 10-year baseline. “The export increase reflects greater corn area and yields, improved export infrastructure, and moderately increasing world prices.” Brazil now grows 95 million tonnes of corn and USDA projects production of 130 million tonnes in 2027/28.
“Brazil’s corn production has risen rapidly over the past 15 years. The country has evolved into one the world’s leading corn producers, the second largest exporter, and a competitor of the United States,” said USDA in a five-page discussion of the country’s economic condition and its agricultural sector. “Brazil’s corn production has risen in response to new high yielding varieties, the introduction of GMO corn, a shift of corn production to higher yielding frontier producing regions of the country, the country’s climatic ability to produce two crops in the same year, and some government support.
Production expansion has exceeded the rate of increase in domestic consumer demand, leaving surplus production for more exports.”
The U.S. is projected to control 36 percent of the world corn market in 2018/19, falling to 30 percent in 2027/28 as corn production, and trade, expands worldwide.