The U.S. share of global soybean production is falling for a second year while its two South American oilseed rivals pass a milestone. Brazil and Argentina will grow 53 percent of the world’s soybeans, with a combined output of 180 million tonnes in 2019/20, estimated the USDA in its monthly WASDE report.
Aided by record plantings, Brazil’s soybean crop was estimated at a record 126 million tonnes, up 1 percent from the February forecast and 9 percent larger than last year. More than 40 percent of the crop was harvested by late February and yields were 6 percent above normal, said USDA’s World Agricultural Production report. “Soybean area continues to increase,” said USDA. Brazil is the longtime leader in soybean exports and will be the top grower in 2019/20 as well.
Argentina’s crop was estimated at 54 million tonnes, up nearly 2 percent from the February estimate. The increase “is due to overall favorable conditions in higher-yielding central and northwestern farming areas,” said USDA analysts in the WASDE report.
Hampered by the rainiest spring in a quarter-century, the U.S. crop of 3.558 billion bushels, or 96.84 million tonnes, amounted to 28 percent of the global harvest of 341.5 million tonnes, compared to 33 percent in 2018/19 and 35 percent in 2017/18.
“With higher South American production and lower use, global soybean (ending) stocks are increased 3.6 million tonnes to 102.4 million,” said the WASDE. The USDA lowered its forecast of the season-average U.S. soybean price to $8.70 a bushel, down 5 cents from February. It also reduced its estimate of the season-average corn price by 5 cents, to $3.80 a bushel, “based on observed prices to date.”