Since the start of this century, the U.S. share of the world market in wheat, corn and soybeans has declined, with South America seen as the leading rival. In reality, “the Black Sea is the only area with a larger share of world production in 2014-16 than in 2000-02 for all three crops,” says economist Carl Zulauf of Ohio State University.
Writing at farmdoc Daily, Zulauf chides as myopic the U.S. focus on South America. “South America dominates the U.S. view of agricultural production in the rest of the world,” he says, and as a result we miss “important storylines. One of them is the key role of the Black Sea area in the growth of production and exports of corn, soybeans and wheat since 2000.”
Unlike other parts of the world, the United States has little potential to expand its base of farmland, says Zulauf. As a result, it is more dependent than other countries on higher yields as the way to increase crop production. “In summary, for a variety of reasons, it may not be easy to expand U.S. exports of farm commodities. At the very least, sustained expansion of U.S. exports of farm commodities will likely require a significant commitment of resources to increasing U.S. yields.