By the end of this decade, “there is a high chance there will be no petroleum diesel used” in California, said agricultural economist Aaron Smith on Monday. This historic upheaval of the fuel market is being driven by state regulations promoting cleaner-burning fuels, he said. “Most California diesel is now made from animal fat, corn oil, soybean oil or used cooking oil.”
In the first three months of this year, less than half of the diesel fuel in California came from petroleum, in contrast to the 85 percent that came from petroleum’s in 2018. The state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) calls for a 20 percent reduction by 2030 of the carbon intensity of transportation fuel from 2010 levels. “This policy is the primary driver of the increase in biodiesel and renewable diesel,” together known as biomass-based diesel, said Smith. writing at the Ag Data News blog.
In determining the carbon intensity of a fuel, the LCFS uses a life cycle analysis that looks at potential emissions throughout the fuel production process as well as tailpipe emissions. Biomass-based diesel is rated as a cleaner fuel, so there is an incentive for fuel suppliers to use it. Smith said he and four colleagues collaborated on a working paper to forecast future use of biomass-based diesel.
“By 2028, we project at least a 50 percent probability that the California diesel pool will have no petroleum. By 2032, there is almost a 95 percent probability of no petroleum diesel,” said Smith. Petroleum diesel could regain some sales if enough electric- and hydrogen-powered trucks are on the road after 2032.