Although U.S. food prices generally show small increases from year to year, the USDA says prices for “food away from home,” a category that includes restaurants, carry-out food and institutional meals, rose 3.1 percent in 2019. That’s the largest increase since 3.5 percent in 2009 and is part of a pattern in which the price of food away from home rises more rapidly than retail prices for groceries.
“These differences are due in part to variations in the cost structure of restaurants versus supermarkets or grocery stores,” says the USDA in its monthly Food Price Outlook. “Restaurant prices primarily comprise labor and rental costs with only a small portion going toward the food being served.”
On average, grocery prices increase 2 percent a year while food away from home goes up 2.8 percent. In 2019, grocery prices rose 0.9 percent, well below the 3.1 percent for restaurant food. For 2020, grocery prices are forecast to rise 1 percent vs. 2.5 percent for food away from home.