Biggest food and farming stories of 2015 will roll into next year

• Chuck Abbott

Looking back on 2015, editors at FERN listed more a dozen newsworthy stories from the year that could have lasting effects. Here’s a look at them, starting with half a dozen top-tier developments:

• FDA approves GMO salmon – the first genetically engineered food animal for human consumption – and issues “guidance” documents to keep GMO labeling voluntary. It could be a couple of years before GMO salmon reaches the grocery store. Meanwhile, Congress deadlocked over pre-empting state GMO food-label laws. Vermont’s first-in-the-nation GMO label law takes effect July 1. The food industry, which opposes mandatory labeling, hopes Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack can referee a consensus early in 2016 that lawmakers will accept.
• The U.S. farm economy slumps, with net cash farm income forecast to fall by 28 percent this year, to the lowest level since 2002. Cash income is a measure of solvency, or the ability to pay bills. “Lower crop and livestock prices are the main drivers of the decline in 2015, while cash production expenses are projected down by 2.3 percent,” says USDA. Prospects are dour for the near term due to slow economic growth around the world and continued low commodity prices.
• Processed meat is rated as “carcinogenic to humans” and red meat as “probably carcinogenic to humans” by the WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer. The rating for processed meat, which includes sausages and smoked meat, is the strongest on IARC’s scale. Its director said the report should buttress public-health recommendations to limit meat consumption. The IARC findings, disputed by the meat industry, illuminated the tussle over the new edition of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. A panel of experts advised HHS and USDA to advocate a diet that is “lower in red and processed meat.” Congress ordered the administration not to consider sustainability of food supplies in writing its recommendations of a healthy diet. The guidelines are expected to be released soon.
• The EPA relaxes the so-called ethanol mandate in a decision that could slow the renewable fuels industry for years, but also recognizes that production of advanced biofuels is failing to meet expectations. EPA set a target for fuel distributors to mix 14.5 billion gallons of corn ethanol into gasoline this year, 5 percent less than Congress envisioned in a 2007 law. The target for advanced biofuels was cut in half from the schedule set in the 2007 law, with biodiesel filling most of it. The reduction triggered a “re-set” clause that empowers EPA to set the cellulosic and advanced biofuel mandates at the levels it believes appropriate. Despite the cuts, EPA says renewable fuels wlll provide 10.1 percent of fuel for cars and light trucks in 2016, breaking the blend wall – the traditional blend rate of 10 percent – for the first time. The oil industry says EPA went too far; the ethanol lobby says EPA should not have retreated at all. Lawsuits are likely in the new year.
• The worst-ever U.S. epidemic of avian influenza kills 10 percent of the hens that lay eggs for table consumption and millions of turkeys. Eggs prices soared and there were fears of short supplies of turkey for holiday meals. Industry and government upgraded biosecurity guidelines for this winter after “lessons learned” reviews found people were to blame for some of the spread of the virus. The USDA is stockpiling bird flu vaccine but has not decided if it will use it. Bird flu erupted in the late winter and spring of this year, when cool and damp conditions favor viruses, so it’s early days in the watch for a return of the disease. The French agriculture ministry said last week that bird flu has been confirmed in 42 locations in the country.
• Under threat of $1 billion in retaliatory tariffs, Congress repeals country-of-origin labeling (COOL) — a law calling for packages of beef and pork to say where the animals were born, raised and slaughtered. The WTO issued a final ruling against COOL in May and then in December approved retaliation by Canada and Mexico. Repeal of COOL was passed by Congress less than two weeks later. U.S. meatpackers and foodmakers, joined by the largest cattle and hog groups, opposed COOL, the fruit of prairie populism, from its creation in 2002 as a voluntary label. No one used it but labels became mandatory in 2009. The WTO ruled the system discouraged import of cattle and hogs from U.S. neighbors.

Issues to watch in the new year include:

• The overdue update of child nutrition programs that include school lunch.
• Continued feuding over nutrient runoff from farms into waterways, including the Waters of the United States regulation, and a lawsuit by the Des Moines, Iowa, Water Works against drainage districts over nitrate in drinking water.
• New attempts to cut the federally subsidized crop insurance system, now the largest farm support program.
• Proposals for agriculture to mitigate to climate change.
• Whether El Niño brings enough snow and rain to California to break the four-year drought.
• And with the administration adopting a goal of cutting food waste in half by 2030, efforts to make that goal a reality.