After two years of dramatic increases, the grocery store price of beef is stabilizing, says the Food Price Outlook. The USDA’s monthly report on food inflation forecasts retail beef prices to rise 0.5 percent this year, compared to the 12-percent increase of 2014, when beef, pork and chicken prices were record-high, and 7 percent in 2015. Aided by better grazing conditions and lower feed costs, producers are expanding herds so more cattle will be sent to slaughter than last year, part of a forecasted 3-percent increase in red meat and poultry production this year.
Americans spend nearly 9 cents of each food dollar on meat. Overall, food inflation is forecast at 2.5 percent for this year, on track with the 20-year average and a modest increase from 1.9 percent last year. With the poultry industry recovering from the avian influenza epidemic, egg prices are expected to rise by a minimal 0.5 percent this year. They rose nearly 18 percent last year as bird flu wiped out 10 percent of the hens that lay eggs for table consumption.
The USDA is to release the semi-annual Cattle inventory report on Friday, providing estimates of heifers held for breeding and insight into the number of cattle likely to be sent to feedlots this year for fattening for slaughter. Cattle numbers have trended generally downward for two decades. In July, the USDA said its survey of 50,000 cattle ranchers and feeders indicated a U.S. cattle herd of 98.4 million head. It was the first increase since 2006 in a July 1 count, and 2-percent larger than the same point in 2014. Some 4.9 million heifers, a 7-percent increase, were held for breeding, and the number of beef cows was up 3 percent, both signs of herd expansion.
Americans are estimated to consume an average 213.6 pounds of meat this year, says the USDA, an increase of 2.1 pounds per person from 2015 and up 11.6 pounds from 2014, when meat supplies were constricted. The 2016 estimate translates to an average of 9.3 ounces of meat per person per day. USDA analysts say per-capita meat consumption first exceeded 200 pounds per year in 1988.