Republican Joni Ernst is back in the hog lot for a 30-second TV ad in her race against Democrat Bruce Braley for the Senate, says Politico. It’s a reprise appearance for Ernst, who vaulted into attention last spring with an ad in which she described castrating hogs during her youth. This time, as the hogs snort and mill about, Ernst says, “It’s a mess. Dirty, noisy and it stinks. Not this lot – I’m talking about the one in Washington.” Ernst talks about cutting federal spending. Braley also has a new ad that accuse Ernst of supporting corporate outsourcing of jobs, says Poltico,
Ernst has a 1-point lead, 47-46, over Braley in a poll of 423 likely voters by Monmouth University with a margin or error of +/-4.8 points. Men were more likely to vote for Ernst and women to support Braley. Respondents gave equal scores – 35 percent – to Ernst and Braley when asked which understands Iowans the best; 19 percent said neither did.
Pollster’s tracking model puts the race at Ernst 48, Braley 46, with a probability of 59 percent for Ernst to win.
FiveThirtyEight says enough Senate races could require runoff elections that “it’s basically a coin flip” whether the Senate majority will be clear on Nov 5, the day after the election.