Dry weather in Iowa, the No. 1 corn state, will contribute to a smaller-than-expected U.S. corn crop this year, say analysts ahead of USDA’s closely watched August crop report, to be released on Thursday. Even so, this year’s harvest would be the third-largest on record for the grain, fundamental to food, feed and biofuel production.
The August crop report is USDA’s first estimate of the fall harvest and is based on spot checks of thousands of fields and a survey of growers as the crop nears maturity. In a Reuters survey, analysts said they expect a USDA estimate of 13.855 billion bushels based on conditions in early August, down 8.5 percent from the record 15.148 billion bushels of 2016.
A smaller crop would bolster the farm-gate price for corn, in a four-year slump. It also would force foodmakers, livestock producers, exporters and ethanol makers to draw down a corn inventory that has been growing since the 2012 harvest and is currently estimated at 2.37 billion bushels. Corn usage exceeds 14 billion bushels a year.
The drought that cut into durum and spring wheat crops in the northern Plains this spring and summer has moved into Iowa and parts of Missouri and Minnesota. In southwestern Iowa, rainfall is 4 to 10 inches below normal for the growing season, says the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. The weekly Crop Progress report by USDA rates 60 percent of the U.S. corn crop as “good” or “excellent.” A year ago, 74 percent of the crop was in those categories.