The latest Census of Agriculture, released in February, reported a 2.2 percent decline in U.S. farmland from 2017 to 2022. A portion of that reduction, involving corn and soybean cropland, may be overstated, said Aaron Smith, a professor of agricultural economics at UC-Davis, in a blog.
Smith looked at states that reported large declines in corn and soybean cropland in the Census of Agriculture and compared their data to cropland reports filed by growers with the Farm Service Agency as a condition of access to USDA farm supports. The ag census figures were lower by 900,000 acres in Illinois, 900,000 acres in South Dakota, and 600,000 acres in Iowa, he said.
“I don’t know what explains this, but it sure looks like the 2022 census significantly undercounted corn and soybean acres in multiple Corn Belt and Great Plains states,” wrote Smith.
The Census of Agriculture, conducted every five years, attempts to contact every known farm in the nation. “The source of ag census information is farmers, ranchers, and other producers who are closest to the information,” so it is the most comprehensive picture available of U.S. agriculture, says the National Agricultural Statistics Service. The agency uses statistical methodology to offset nonresponse to the census. The response rate for the 2022 census was 61 percent.