Amid tight supplies, a mammoth soybean crop on the horizon | Food and Environment Reporting Network

Three years of ever-tighter U.S. soybean supplies will end this fall in a record harvest if USDA estimates prove true. Its Acreage report, based on a survey of 71,000 operators, estimated soybean plantings at a record 84.8 million acres, or 8 percent above the mark set in 2009, which is also the record year for soybean production at 3.359 billion bushels. Plantings would be 4 percent larger than farmers planned in March.

If yields match USDA projections, this year’s soybean crop would be around 3.8 billion bushels or 13 percent above the 2009 record. A record-setting harvest would dramatically rebuild soybean stockpiles and bring down historically high market prices. In a quarterly Grain Stocks report, also released on Monday, USDA said the stockpile was a larger-than-expected 405 million bushels on June 1. A paltry 125 million bushels will remain when the fall harvest begins, USDA estimated in early June.

Farmers indicated they will plant 91.6 million acres of corn. 56.5 million acres of wheat, 12.7 million acres of cotton and 3.05 million acres of rice. Cotton plantings were up 9 percent and rice up 22 percent from 2013. The corn and wheat plantings were within 1 percent of trade expectations. The soybean planting figure was 3 percent larger than expected.