Sorghum growers are headed for their largest crop in 16 years, 573 million bushels, says the USDA in its Feed Outlook. The bumper crop is due to a 20-percent surge in plantings and record-high yields of 74.6 bushels an acre. Exports are forecast at a record 430 million bushels – three-quarters of the crop – during the trade year that opens on Sept. 1, and are expected to top the record of 350 million bushels predicted for this year.
Exports are soaring because of voracious demand by China, which has shouldered aside Japan and Mexico as the primary buyer of sorghum, says the USDA in a special article, “U.S. sorghum markets in transition: Trade policies drive export volumes,” which begins on page 19 of the Feed Outlook. China is buying 80 percent of U.S. sorghum exports this year, and that is expected to grow to 94 percent in the new marketing year. Sorghum sales to China accelerated in 2013 as an alternative feed grain after China rejected shipments of U.S. corn because they contained a GE variety not approved by Beijing. Import tariffs are lower for sorghum, too.
“Hearty Chinese demand for U.S. sorghum notwithstanding, the market appears to be evolving and presents challenges to efforts to predict near-term fluctuations and long-term trade patterns,” the authors of the special article write in conclusion. “The noted variability of demand, combined with the fluid nature of Chinese trade policies, obliges stakeholders to frequently monitor market conditions to stay abreast of potential sorghum export market transitions.”