Despite the recent slowdown in the rise of food prices, many consumers believe high food inflation will persist for a year to come, said Purdue researchers on Wednesday. Republicans were far more likely than Democrats to predict higher food prices, suggesting a partisan tint in expectations.
Participants in a Purdue survey said they expected food inflation to average a higher-than-normal 3.7 percent over the next 12 months, and they recalled an average food inflation rate of 6 percent for the past year. “Consumer food inflation estimates and expectations have remained relatively consistent over the past three months,” said Purdue, notwithstanding monthly declines.
Earlier this week, the Labor Department said food prices had risen 2.2 percent over the past 12 months, the lowest rate since May 2021. USDA economists forecast food inflation at just 1.3 percent in 2024. The 20-year annual average for food price increases is 3 percent. Food inflation peaked at 11.4 percent in August 2022 and has declined in each succeeding month.
“Even though inflation has cooled significantly … inflation remains positive,” said Joseph Balagtas, director of Purdue’s Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability. “Consumers, on average, are predicting inflation to rise a bit in the coming year.”
Indeed, food inflation has been consistently anticipated in Purdue’s monthly survey of 1,200 consumers. In the most recent survey, conducted in February, 64 percent of respondents said they expected food prices to rise. The high point was 69 percent in February 2022; that number has dropped a tick or two below 60 percent in five of the surveys since then.
Some 71 percent of self-identified Republicans said they expected food prices to rise, an expectation shared by 56 percent of self-identified Democrats. “It seems our political leanings color our perceptions of the food economy,” said Balagtas. Partisanship has also been reported in how Americans rate the economy overall.
Survey participants reported spending an average of $195 a week per person on food, compared with $182 a week in February 2023 and $163 a week in February 2022. “On average, consumers are spending about $127 a week on groceries … and $68 a week on restaurants and other carryout” food — up 19 percent from two years ago, said Purdue.
Over the past year, there has been a slight downward trend in the number of meals eaten outside the home each week, an apparent reaction to increased prices, said the report.
According to the Consumer Price Index, food-away-from-home prices increased 4.5 percent in the past 12 months. The category includes restaurant meals, carryout food, school meals, company cafeterias, and vending machine purchases. Grocery prices increased 1 percent in the same period.