The United States ran a record agricultural trade deficit of $16.6 billion in the fiscal year that ended on Sept. 30, according to a USDA database. The deficit was smaller than the forecast of $19 billion but fiscal 2023 was the third deficit in the last five years.
Large agricultural trade deficits are forecast to be common in the future, fueled by consumer demand for imported foods that will grow much faster than ag exports. The USDA has forecast a deficit of $27.5 billion in the current fiscal year, based on the second year in a row of declining exports and steadily increasing imports. The deficit was smaller than expected in fiscal 2023 because exports were slightly larger and imports slightly smaller than projected.
Exports were a record $196.1 billion in fiscal 2022, fell to $178.7 billion in fiscal 2023, and are forecast at $172 billion this fiscal year. Imports totaled $194.2 billion in fiscal 2022, $195.4 in fiscal 2023, and are forecast for $199.5 billion this fiscal year. The USDA is scheduled to update its ag trade forecasts on Nov. 30.
Grain trader Cargill said China purchased more than 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last week, reported Bloomberg. It quoted a Cargill official as saying, “The message is around: China is stocking up, buying more quantities than everyone thought.”