Pork prices in the grocery store are forecast to increase hardly at all this year, up 0.5 percent, says the USDA’s Food Price Outlook, a relief for consumers after record-high prices last year. “However, pork prices [this month] are still 5.9 percent higher than last year,” according to the monthly report. Hog farmers are expanding production and hog prices this year are expected to be lower than in 2014. Poultry meat is forecast to increase in price by 3 percent this year and beef by 3.5 percent. At the moment, beef prices are 15 percent higher than a year ago.
Overall, food inflation is forecast for 2.5 percent for the year, slightly below the average of 2.6 percent. It would be the third year in a row of below-normal inflation rates for food.
Hog numbers are up sharply – the USDA estimates the U.S. herd at 65.9 million, up 7 percent from a year ago. The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report lists a breeding inventory of 5.98 million head, up 2 percent from March 2013. The market hog inventory is up by 8 percent and the pig crop for December 2012-March 2015 is up 9 percent. “The average pigs saved per litter was a record 10.17 for the December-February period, compared to 9.53 last year,” said the USDA. Hog farmers plan increased farrowings for the next six months.