After years of culling herds in the face of high grain prices, U.S. livestock producers “finally have a positive multiple-year outlook,” writes economist Chris Hurt of Purdue U, boosted by more affordable commodity prices, waning of drought in the southern Plains and higher household income. “Animal industries are expected to be in a mini-boom phase in coming years led by rising per capita consumption, continued small growth in U.S. population, and growing export demand,” Hurt says at farmdoc daily. Some cropland will return to pasture.
For consumers, Hurt sees larger meat consumption after a decline of nearly 10 percent per capita from 2007 – “a recovery of 10 to 12 pounds of the lost 20 (pounds) seems like a reasonable estimate. This would mean a recovery from 199 pounds to near 210 pounds.” Beef and pork are at record prices in the grocery store but should moderate in coming years. USDA has forecast larger meat production in 2015.