In two reports today, the Agriculture Department will clarify how tight soybean stocks will get this summer and how large, possibly record-setting, the fall harvests will be. With grain and soybean stocks on the rise around the world, bumper U.S. crops will assure ample supplies for foodmakers, livestock feeders, exporters and ethanol makers. The run of high commodity prices that began in 2006 will cede to more moderate prices.
On average, traders expect USDA to estimate corn plantings at 91.7 million acres and soybeans at 82.1 million. Those would translate to 13.9 billion bushels of corn and 3.7 billion bushels of soybeans, using USDA’s projected yields and abandonment rates. USDA will estimate harvest area as part of the Acreage report, which will make it easier for arm-chair economists to forecast crop size. The quarterly Grain Stocks report is expected to list 378 million bushels of soybeans on hand on June 1. Carryover stocks on Sept 1 are expected to be around 125 million bushels, the smallest in 10 years.