“Sen Pat Roberts (R) of Kansas may be making a comeback after having been left for dead on the battlefield,” says the political newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which now lists the Senate race as a toss-up vs the previous “Leans Independent.” The Crystal Ball says Roberts, potentially the next Senate Agriculture Committee chairman, is doing better in polls and says Independent Greg Orman “is learning how difficult it is to best even a weak, damaged Republican in ruby red Jayhawk territory.”
Pollster’s tracking model puts the race at Roberts 44, Orman 43 with a 51 percent probability that Roberts will win. FiveThirtyEight gives Orman a 56 percent probability of winning.
Steve King of Iowa, mentioned as a possibility for House Agriculture Committee chairman, is sure to be re-elected in northwest Iowa, says Crystal Ball. It says “a too-tough environment” derailed Democratic hopes. King is a critic of food stamps and unsuccessfully tried to use the farm bill to outflank California’s rules on egg imports. Crystal Ball also changed its ratings to “Safe Republican” for two other House Agriculture Committee members, Jeff Denham of California and Chris Gibson of New York state.
The newsletter also published a chart showing a candidate’s likelihood of victory based on standing in polls ahead of election day. For example, 65 percent of candidates with a 2-point lead three weeks before election were victors.
Gallup says 14 percent of Americans approve of the way Congress is doing its job – the lowest approval rate for October of a mid-term election year since 1974, when Gallup started asking the question. Low approval ratings before a mid-term election are associated with higher turnover of seats, particularly for the president’s party, says the polling organization. “One variable working against a big shakeup is the current divided party control of Congress,” it said.